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Ranked hypotheses worth re-testing

Plant–use pairs that no retrieved modern study tested in the historical preparation, ranked only on predicted profile gaps that hold across the uncertainty range. Each is a hypothesis worth re-testing, not a finding about any remedy.

  1. 1of 3

    Glycyrrhiza glabra · for Liver Diseases

    As written: “very good for the voice, for which purpose it is thickened and then placed beneath the tongue: it is good, too, for the chest and liver” · 1 recipeHistorical: decoction in waterModern: modern methanol extract

    Toxicity is reported for this plant. Shown as a historical record for laboratory analysis only — not a preparation to make or take.

    For analysis only: not offered for planning, and no Lab link is given.

    Caveats

    • hypothesis worth re-testing, not a claim that the preparation works or is safe
    • profile gap from predicted compound likelihoods (model), equal weights: LOTUS has no abundance data
    • historical indication mapped to MeSH by a heuristic lexicon; the historical term is not a modern diagnosis
    • modern preparation modelled with the M4 maceration preset: heat unstated in 1 of 1 study preparations
    • attested only by Pliny (lower confidence)
    • 13 retrieved studies could not be coded as faithful or not (unknown fields)
    • faithful preparation uses a logged extraction correction (config/m1_corrections.csv)
    Evidence trail
    1. 1 · Source1 historical recipe for this use

      Indication as written: “very good for the voice, for which purpose it is thickened and then placed beneath the tongue: it is good, too, for the chest and liver”. Provisional extraction; every quote passed the verbatim check.

    2. 2 · NameName resolved to Glycyrrhiza glabra

      Resolution from GBIF / WFO evidence with heuristic weights; awaiting the 30-name scholarly check.

    3. 3 · PreparationFaithful preparation: decoction in water

      Contract preparation key root|unknown|water|boiled|yes. Uses a logged extraction correction.

    4. 4 · ModelPredicted profile gap 0.29–0.55 (median 0.42)

      rank by the 5th percentile of the profile gap over coupled Monte Carlo draws (descriptor error included); ties: P(gap > 0.2), then median gap; compounds with a 5th–95th range wider than 0.8 in either preparation are excluded (heuristic); at least 5 usable compounds. 405 compounds used, 56 excluded as too wide.

    5. 5 · AuditNo retrieved study prepared it faithfully

      10 retrieved studies listed; coded by the rule-based extractor (heuristic; not independently validated).

    6. 6 · ToxicityToxicity entry

      EMA monograph: overdose with prolonged or high intake causes water retention, hypokalaemia, hypertension, cardiac rhythm disorders and hypertensive encephalopathy. (source: EMA/HMPC, EU herbal monograph (Glycyrrhiza spp., radix, revision 1); provisional, unverified)

  2. 2of 3

    Allium cepa · for Skin Diseases

    As written: “taketh away all Blemishes, Spots, and Marks in the Skin” · 2 recipesHistorical: steeped in vinegarModern: decoction in water

    Toxicity is reported for this plant. Shown as a historical record for laboratory analysis only — not a preparation to make or take.

    For analysis only: not offered for planning, and no Lab link is given.

    Caveats

    • hypothesis worth re-testing, not a claim that the preparation works or is safe
    • profile gap from predicted compound likelihoods (model), equal weights: LOTUS has no abundance data
    • historical indication mapped to MeSH by a heuristic lexicon; the historical term is not a modern diagnosis
    • 9 retrieved studies could not be coded as faithful or not (unknown fields)
    Evidence trail
    1. 1 · Source2 historical recipes for this use

      Indication as written: “taketh away all Blemishes, Spots, and Marks in the Skin”. Provisional extraction; every quote passed the verbatim check.

    2. 2 · NameName resolved to Allium cepa

      Resolution from GBIF / WFO evidence with heuristic weights; awaiting the 30-name scholarly check.

    3. 3 · PreparationFaithful preparation: steeped in vinegar

      Contract preparation key juice|unknown|vinegar|cold|unknown.

    4. 4 · ModelPredicted profile gap 0.01–0.07 (median 0.04)

      rank by the 5th percentile of the profile gap over coupled Monte Carlo draws (descriptor error included); ties: P(gap > 0.2), then median gap; compounds with a 5th–95th range wider than 0.8 in either preparation are excluded (heuristic); at least 5 usable compounds. 275 compounds used, 44 excluded as too wide.

    5. 5 · AuditNo retrieved study prepared it faithfully

      10 retrieved studies listed; coded by the rule-based extractor (heuristic; not independently validated).

    6. 6 · ToxicityToxicity entry

      Veterinary review: onion causes oxidative haemolysis (anaemia) in cats, dogs and cattle. Animal evidence, not human. (source: Veterinary review, PMC (open access); provisional, unverified)

  3. 3of 3

    Raphanus sativus · for Urinary Calculi

    As written: “breaking and expelling calculi of the bladder” · 1 recipeHistorical: decoction in wineModern: decoction in water

    Caveats

    • hypothesis worth re-testing, not a claim that the preparation works or is safe
    • profile gap from predicted compound likelihoods (model), equal weights: LOTUS has no abundance data
    • historical indication mapped to MeSH by a heuristic lexicon; the historical term is not a modern diagnosis
    • attested only by Pliny (lower confidence)
    Evidence trail
    1. 1 · Source1 historical recipe for this use

      Indication as written: “breaking and expelling calculi of the bladder”. Provisional extraction; every quote passed the verbatim check.

    2. 2 · NameName resolved to Raphanus sativus

      Resolution from GBIF / WFO evidence with heuristic weights; awaiting the 30-name scholarly check.

    3. 3 · PreparationFaithful preparation: decoction in wine

      Contract preparation key other|unknown|wine|boiled|unknown.

    4. 4 · ModelPredicted profile gap 0.00–0.04 (median 0.01)

      rank by the 5th percentile of the profile gap over coupled Monte Carlo draws (descriptor error included); ties: P(gap > 0.2), then median gap; compounds with a 5th–95th range wider than 0.8 in either preparation are excluded (heuristic); at least 5 usable compounds. 208 compounds used, 40 excluded as too wide.

    5. 5 · AuditNo retrieved study prepared it faithfully

      2 retrieved studies listed; coded by the rule-based extractor (heuristic; not independently validated).

    6. 6 · ToxicityToxicity entry

      Systematic review: radish root affected thyroid activity in two rat studies (one found signs of hypothyroidism; the other reached different conclusions). Not poisoning. (source: Systematic review, PMC (open access); provisional, unverified)

View as table
Ranked hypotheses
RankPlantUseHistoricalModernGap 5th–95thToxicity
1Glycyrrhiza glabraLiver Diseasesdecoction in watermodern methanol extract0.294–0.546toxic reported
2Allium cepaSkin Diseasessteeped in vinegardecoction in water0.012–0.073toxic reported
3Raphanus sativusUrinary Calculidecoction in winedecoction in water0.003–0.044concern

The Lab Planner’s re-test panel is a separate result: an exact optimisation over a wider candidate pool (Lab Planner).